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Explaining The Projected Score-Line

We now need to explain what the Projected Score-Line backup data represents (Cells Q70:R75 on the "Match Selections" worksheet of the COMBO-FINDER TOOL), i.e. how it is compiled and what its relevance is as far as you are concerned:

  1. Our PaW Program make predictions of the goals, both "for" and "against" each team, for each and every match. To make those predictions, we use a suite of interconnected algorithms that have been tried, tested and modified for improvement over the course of the past 13 years or so (as at 2016), and which are very good for doing the job they were specifically designed to do.
  2. Now, although from season-to-season our PaW Program only averages a Correct Scores hit rate of about 10-12% (across ALL Correct Scores Calls - from Home Wins, Away Wins and Draws), for many of the teams our Program’s score-line predictions get very close to the mark. Of course, with some of the more erratic teams, our Program's calls are nowhere near as close.
  3. What the Projected Score-Line calculations on our COMBO-FINDER TOOL do is take our Program’s original Anticipated Score-Line (ASL) and re-work it to compensate for where the Program has not been getting it "quite right". This would normally be due to a team producing a number of score-lines that are somewhat inconsistent when compared against its "averaged" score-lines.
  4. Of course, the worst case of inconsistency is where a team loses when it should win and wins when it is expected to lose; and there are far too many teams that fall into that mould! But that is what the calculations inside the COMBO-FINDER TOOL are there to compensate for.
  5. Our advice is that you should try to select for betting purposes only those matches where the past results for the teams (including actual score-lines) were pretty much in line with our PaW Program's original expectations. Conducting a manual check-up of the score-line reliability status will allow you to completely eliminate the less reliable matches/teams from your final selections list!
  6. So, the primary purpose of working through the "projection" checking exercise is to see if you can find matches where the Projected Score-Line is exactly the same as the original Anticipated Score-Line. Where it is, we would have much more confidence in the original Anticipated Score-Line than where there is a marked disparity between the two score-lines, not least because the projection exercise takes into account the comparative performance of BOTH teams in the match, not just one of them.

 

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