2. The Law Of Averages
We are firm believers in the "Law of Averages", and so our computerised soccer predictions Program is written to faithfully follow the principles inherent in that concept in every aspect of its working, and which in turn means that just about everything we post on this website is a direct result of applying those principles. The Law of Averages hasn't let us down in over 10 years of posting online, so we aren't about to abandon faith in it now!
We know that the word "average" is often used disparagingly, such as "She only got an average grade for all her subjects", as if that somehow makes that girl inferior to everyone else. However, the reality is probably that 75% of the rest of us also only got an average grade in the very same subjects that girl sat tests for!
However, the Law of Averages is often misunderstood by many people. For example, on a roulette table there is no more chance of the ball landing on a red number on the current spin just because it happened to land on a black number every time over the last 10 spins. Belief that the Law of Averages will see you right on the next spin (by landing on a red number following the ten black results) has ruined many a Bettor, because they are in fact relying upon a completely different "law" known as the "Gambler's Fallacy"!
In fact, to appreciate its relevance and application better, the Law of Averages would be better referred to by its other title, the "Law of Large Numbers". The Law of Large Numbers is based on the tried-and-tested principle that the average value of the results obtained from a large number of identical trials will prove to be close to the expected average value, and will tend to become closer to that expected average value as more and more trials are conducted. The obvious (and correct) conclusion from this definition is that nothing much can be deduced from a trial involving a low number of tests!
The Bookies employ the principle behind the Law of Large Numbers when fixing the Odds for each week's soccer matches. They first calculate the "Fair Odds" based on each team's past performance records over a long period, then add a large contingency factor (mark-up) into the equation to allow them to be confident of making a handsome profit over the course of the season (although their fortunes will undoubtedly vary considerably some weeks). The Bookies then go one step further in an effort to force Bettors away from the more obvious winners by reducing the Odds on the stronger teams and offering much higher Odds for the seemingly weaker teams.
Extensive computerized testing we have performed over the course of the past 10 years indicates that even with a mark-up (Over-Round) of only 7.5%, the Bookies will make at least 5% in their very worst year!
So, if the Bookies can rely on the Law of Large Numbers every year to ensure that they will make a good living without going bankrupt, what chance is there for the average Bettor to make a decent living out of the Bookies? The obvious answer to that is: NOT MUCH!
To get the better of the Bookies you need to be one of those few Bettors operating a good Selection System, and you also need to adopt a good Staking Plan. A good Staking Plan is secondary and readily available at no cost, but finding a good Selection System is entirely another matter. Without a good Selection System, a Bettor is relying upon Lady Luck alone, and the Law of Large Numbers has demonstrated time and again that Lady Luck stays in more nights than she ventures out!
If you forget the Law of Averages and do all your betting based on the belief that "today, everything will be different", then you shouldn't be surprised if your betting selections fail miserably!