How does your Prediction Program cope with player injuries and the like?
We did consider introducing a confidence factor for each team, where a 100% level indicated that the "average" abilities of the team appeared to be reasonably reliable, and also reducing the levels of confidence where many injuries were evidenced. However, in testing, such subjective adjustments seemed to substantially impair the long-term reliability of the Program's output, so we deliberately do not attempt to make such artificial adjustments.
Instead, we recommend that you shouldn't include any matches in your betting selections where the stronger team has obviously been weakened by injuries of or bans against key players. Wait until the team is at full strength again, and then its "average" performance will be much more meaningful.