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Making Early Season Score-Line Predictions

Bear in mind that at the beginning of the season we could get some pretty wild adjustments if we took the data for just the first few weeks’ matches and tried to calculate future score-lines based on that data alone. So what we do until a team has played 15 matches at a Home or Away venue is to make adjustments based on our predictions versus the actual results for the last few matches played in the previous season plus the results to date in the current season, looking at the data for just 15 matches overall.

So, as soon as a team has played 15 matches in the current season for, say, the Home venue, then last season’s prediction performance records are no longer used, and our PaW Program concentrates only on what has happened in the current season when performing the Home venue calculations for the remainder of the season. We therefore expect that from slightly before the half-way mark in a season our PaW Program's calls will do considerably better than at the start of the season.

The above has filled you in on how our PaW Program gets to its our 'base score-line prediction' (the Anticipated Score-Line or "ASL") and how the COMBO-FINDER TOOL is designed to project those base predictions on the basis of how near to or how far away from the actual results our PaW Program’s previous Anticipated Score-Line predictions have proved to be.

Of course, where the Projected Score-Line does not match the original Anticipated Score-Line, then you will need to put a lot of extra thought into working out what the most likely score-line for the match could be. But we offer some guidelines on that in the next sub-menu, titled "Determining Most Likely Alternative Score-Lines".

 

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